Fourth Ticket Out Of Iowa

It is said that there are three tickets out of Iowa. On the Democratic side, the three tickets seem to be settled on Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and John Edwards and now it is a contest to see how those tickets breakdown among them. There are two Democratic candidates, however, that seem to vying for a fourth ticket out of the hawkeye state.

Delaware Senator Joe Biden and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson have three times the experience of each of the leading presidential candidates and yet neither of them are polling in the double digits. Governor Richardson, who has served in Congress, as U.N. Ambassador, and Secretary of Energy, has been polling fourth in Iowa however Senator Biden, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, is looking to unseat him.

Governor Bill Richardson:

A lot of people have been saying that Bill Richardson is actually running for vice president and, while that may be the case, the candidate refuses to acknowledge it. This past weekend, at a restaurant in downtown Des Moines, over two hundred people came out to hear the Governor (or to see Martin Sheen who was supposed to be in attendance). Richardson was careful to not attack his Democratic rivals but rather focus on the common enemy, President Bush.

Elizabeth Dilly is a minister in The United Church of Christ in Red Oak, a small town in southwestern Iowa. She likes Richardson for his vast experience and thinks he has the best chance at winning a general election. “He has a broad appeal to independents and Republicans,” she said, “My dad, who is a life long Republican, said that out of all the candidates he liked Richardson the most.” Maybe he would make a good running mate.

Senator Joe Biden:

There is something strange happening among Democratic voters. I have spoken to a huge number of people that say, “I love Joe Biden but I’m supporting (insert name of top three candidate).” Biden seems to be the guy that everyone wants to vote for but that no one thinks has a chance. The dilemma is that he isn’t going to have a chance if those who like him don’t support him.

In political communication theory this is called the spiral of silence. It says that we use the media to gauge public opinion and if we believe our own opinion falls outside the norm presented in the media, we become more likely to keep our opinions to ourselves. What we have right now is a media that has focused on certain superstar candidates and a public that now believes that voting for someone outside of the top three is a waste.

On News Year’s Eve, 70 people showed up at a community center in the small town of Newton, Iowa to hear and meet Senator Joe Biden. The Senator began the event by introducing his family. One of his sons, his daughter, two daughter-in-laws, brother, mother, and three grandchildren were all in attendance – each one more attractive than the next. In total there are 20 family members and four generations of Biden’s traveling Iowa. They definitely have Kennedy potential.

As chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Joe Biden is the expert on all things international. So when the audience grilled the Senator on the crisis in Pakistan, the genocide in Darfur, and the war in Iraq, Biden gave detailed answers that impressed even the most hardened skeptics. Although not his area of expertise, the Senator continued to be impressive when talking about domestic issues related to illegal immigration, education and healthcare.

Biden's problem is that he’s the perfect candidate. He looks, sounds, and acts presidential. There is no intrigue, nothing new or exciting about his candidacy, nothing that the media can jump on. In fact, the only time Biden made news was when he said Barack Obama was “articulate,” which many saw as racially insensitive. During the debates he usually impresses pundits and viewers but he is soon forget, only his quips remembered. (In the first debate, when asked if he could be trusted to watch what he says, he simply answered “yes.” In a more recent debate, Biden said that Rudy Giuliani’s sentences consist of “a noun, a verb and 9/11.”)

The people who seem to support Biden the most are his Democratic rivals. The Biden campaign has put together a minute and a half video of all the candidates saying that they agree with the Senator while “You’ve Got A Friend in Me” plays in the background.

If Joe Biden had run in 2004 against John Kerry, Howard Dean, and John Edwards for the Democratic nomination, he would have won. But in this campaign of superstars, fourth place is the best he can hope for in Iowa.

What is HE Doing Here?

Iowa is a quaint place. People are friendly and polite; everyone greets you with a smile and a kind word. Life moves at a leisurely pace. Fashion is more about staying warm than staying up with the latest trends. 

So, when a group of young professionals – men wearing pinstripe blazers and designer jeans and women in camelhair coats, high heels and diamond earrings – enter a bakery in Indianola, a small town 40 minutes south of Des Moines, heads definitely turn. These Giuliani volunteers with their blackberrys and Burberry are out of place and out of their element. They belong in Manhattan, not the Midwest, as does the former New York City mayor.

Rudy Giuliani is staying out of Iowa for the most part. He made a few appearances this past weekend but he’s been focusing his campaign on Florida and some of the bigger February 5^th states like California. He spoke for a grand total of 16 minutes at Furano’s Bakery, which was packed with reporters and Iowans who realized that this may be the only time they’ll get to see the mayor in a state without a coastline. 

Knowing that Iowa isn’t much for foreign policy (terror included) Giuliani stuck to domestic issues like lowering taxes, education, healthcare. He mentioned these concepts briefly but moved on quickly to questions, shaking of hands, and signing books.

Iowa isn’t a state that would elect a pro-choice thrice-married New York City mayor so staying out was a wise campaign decision. Staying out of New Hampshire, however, may end up costing Giuliani. Without the momentum of the early states, the mayor is taking a major risk. While he is still leading in most national polls, a record of electoral success in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina can greatly help his opponents close the narrowing gap.

In the meantime, it’s best if Rudy and his fashionable posse stay in the Hamptons rather than the heartland. 

Huckabee's Confusing Christian Campaign

In the Des Moines Register’s final poll before Thursday’s caucus, Mike Huckabee is pulling ahead on the Republican side with 32% to 26% for Mitt Romney. I have no doubt that the former Arkansas governor will give the former Massachusetts governor a run for his money/millions come caucus night, but for all his success, there is something odd about Huckabee’s campaign strategy.

For one thing, unlike other candidates (both Democrat and Republican) Huckabee has the lightest schedule in these crucial last days. He’s been favoring photo-ops with press to meet-and-greets with voters. For instance, the day after Christmas instead of hunting for Iowa voters, Huckabee went hunting for pheasants.

New Year’s Eve – three days before the big event – Huckabee invited the press for an early morning run and a haircut and held a press conference in between (see below). Last night he did do some politicking when he gave a speech and played bass with the band at a New Year’s Eve bash for supporters at a Des Moines country club (his first big event in days). On average, Huckabee has been holding two or three events a day while mostly everyone else is averaging five or six.

Last Saturday, Huckabee was supposed to be holding an event at Signature Grill in Indianola at 1:00. When he changed the time to noon to better suit C-SPAN, many would-be attendees didn’t get the update (including myself) and were frustrated when they arrived to find that they couldn’t even step into the over-packed one room restaurant. One woman said that she had been undecided but her frustration with the event made Huckabee her last choice.

Another aspect of his strategy that appears a

little peculiar is his “good-guy” approach to attacking his closest opponent. Yesterday, 70 reporters crammed into a small banquet room at the Marriott in downtown Des Moines for a noon press conference. Around the room were placards that assailed Romney’s record and a banner behind the podium that read “Enough is enough!”

Huckabee started by saying that he doesn’t agree with the negative tone the Romney campaign has taken, particularly with a recent barrage of attack ads against himself in Iowa and John McCain in New Hampshire. He said that he had produced an attack ad against the former Massachusetts governor but had a change of heart and was pulling the ad before it ever aired. Huckabee said that while “conventional political wisdom” says that you should “hit back” he is going to keep his campaign positive.

After going through his whole shpiel about keeping his campaign focused on why he should be president rather than why Mitt Romney should not be, Huckabee said, “I know some of you are saying ‘well did you really have an ad?’ I want to show you the ad so you get a chance to find out” at which point the room exploded in laughter. How bizarre! Essentially Huckabee was saying, “I’m not going to air the ad, I’m a good guy. However if I was going to air an attack ad, this is what I’d say.” Every journalist (and blogger like myself) could not believe this strange tactic. Either be the nice guy or be the mean guy. Either air the ad or kill the ad.

That evening at his New Year’s Eve bash Huckabee, a former Baptist minister, said that he could “sleep with peace in my heart that I know I’ve done the right thing even if it’s not the most politically conventional thing.” After hearing this, I couldn’t help but think of the sign on the side of Huckabee’s bus that says “Faith. Family. Freedom.” Is staying positive the right thing to do or the Christian thing to do? I’m not suggesting that they are mutually exclusive but I think this tactic of being the nice guy and taking the high road will mobilize Huckabee’s base of evangelical voters who dislike Romney and his Mormonism.

When I asked “Why Huckabee?” to Wanda Cowan, a middle aged woman from Indianola, she said “I like what he stands for, he’s not running a dirty campaign and he’s a Christian, that’s extremely important to us.” She said that she and her husband have only caucused once before but they can’t remember whom for but that this year they are motivated because they “want Christian people appointed in politics.”

Turning the other cheek is the Christian thing to do. Advertising to the world that you're turning the other cheek is the political thing to do. It's simply Huckabee’s way of mudslinging without getting his hands dirty.

Straight-Talk? More Like Old Talk

There was a time when John McCain was the Republican frontrunner. No, I’m serious. I know that names like Romney, Giuliani and Huckabee have clouded your thinking but if you remember, back in the beginning of the year, McCain was the guy to beat.

Things have definitely changed for the Senator from Arizona. There was support for a Bush-backed immigration overhaul that was extremely unpopular in GOP circles, unwavering support for the war (if not the strategy) in Iraq, out of character courting of religious conservative leaders, and severe mismanagement of campaign funds. The McCain campaign was written off and left to wither amongst the less successful candidates like Tom Tancredo and Duncan Hunter. With McCain floundering, Fred Thompson was seen as the Great White Hope.

However, the holiday season has brought a lot of joy to the McCain campaign in the form of endorsements. The Boston Globe, The Manchester Union Leader, and The Des Moines Register all have picked the Vietnam veteran as their Republican of choice. Also, Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman, a Democrat who won reelection as an independent in 2006, came out in support of his old friend.

McCain isn’t polling very high in Iowa. The focus of his campaign has been New Hampshire where he beat Bush in 2000 and has a chance of repeating that performance in 2008 (or at the least coming in second to Mitt Romney). Although Iowa isn’t his priority, he has recently been campaigning in the Hawkeye State and in fact made an appearance Thursday morning at the Elks Lodge in Urbandale, a suburb of Des Moines. Although there was no bus with his picture plastered on it, there was a decorated jeep parked outside to denote the presence of the Senator.

It was frigidly cold and lightly snowing, but 200 people crammed into the room to hear McCain speak. The average age of the attendees was 60 (mind you there were lots of young journalists and photographers that I include in this average). McCain, who is 71, was described by the gentleman who introduced him as a leader that “has seen it, done it, and learned from it.” Speaking behind a banner that said “John McCain A Commonsense Conservative” the Senator discussed Bhutto’s assassination, what that meant for the U.S., what the importance of Pakistan is but didn’t say how he, as commander in chief, would deal with the continuously unstable nuclear power. That being said, it’s clear that he has a command of the situation and understands what’s at stake.

McCain continued on with jokes -- one ethanol and one Irish (I haven't quite figured why the Irish one) -- and then on to the classic stump speech followed by questions from the audience. Speaking to some people afterwards who have been to other McCain events, the consensus was that he’s great at staying on message. Of course he’s still straight-talking but it’s the same straight-talk they’ve all heard before.

I personally believe that John McCain is an admirable man and I have deep respect for him. But if the demographic of his supporters at this event is any indication, perhaps McCain and his straight-talk are a little outdated to carry Iowa which continues to be predominately made up of economy focused war skeptics.

I look forward to seeing some McCain magic in New Hampshire.

The Bill Factor

I checked into my hotel room in Des Moines and before I even had a chance to shower a photographer I had met on the plane, Eric Thayer of Getty Images and The Stumping Grounds, picked me up and drove me to Mount Pleasant, some two hours away, to attend the kickoff of Hillary Clinton’s “Big Challenges, Real Solutions, Time to Pick a President Tour” (try saying that three times fast). In Los Angeles, I always say that 20 minutes is the standard travel time. In Iowa, it’s 2 hours.

It was a bitterly cold day. No matter how many layers I was able to pile on, I still felt the cold in my bones. Thank goodness there were 500 people crammed into the atrium at the Mount Pleasant Community High School waiting for the Clintons to arrive, they kept me plenty warm.

When the event finally started, two hours after it was initially supposed to begin, it was really a family affair. Former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack, who lives in Mount Pleasant and has been doing a fine job running for VP after dropping out of the Presidential race in early February, was accompanied by his lovely wife and his two strapping sons (if Iowa corn can make me look half that good, bring on the carbs!). Then of course the Clintons came out – Chelsea included – and the crowd exploded with applause.

When Vilsack introduced Bill I realized something extraordinary: I’m seeing Bill Clinton speak and it isn’t on TV. I didn’t have to pay anything. He actually wants to talk to me. Only in Iowa.

Bill Clinton spoke about how Hillary has been a “proven agent of change,” about her willingness to take the lead in improving people’s lives. No surprise there. Of course he’s going to say that.

A central theme of the Democratic contest in Iowa has been experience. Hillary attacking Obama for lack of it; Obama questioning Hillary whether being first lady qualifies as experience; Joe Biden declaring he has the perfect amount; Bill Richardson saying he has almost too much. So when Bill Clinton started to talk about the demands of the presidency, I start to understand the natural upperhand of incumbents. If you actually have the experience, it’s impossible to debate who has more of it.

I don’t know Bill Clinton personally, but yet when he’s speaks it is as calming and familiar to me as my best friend. He can soothe my fears and warm my heart. And when he’s speaking to a room of 500+ people, it still feels like an intimate conversation just between him and me. So when Bill Clinton tells me (and all the other people listening in on our intimate conversation) that Hillary Clinton can win a general election, I/we can’t help but believe him. He’s a friend after all. And friends don't lie.

Bill’s final words to the crowd were, “I hope, courtesy of your support, that I’m introducing you to the next President of The United States.” For me, the naïve blogger adventuring through Iowa, I felt for that moment that supporting Hillary is doing something for a friend.

Hillary focused on issues concerning the “average American” who have been “invisible during the Bush presidency.” She talked about her experience fighting for families and children (which was perfect since her family and child were there). She said that when she tackled healthcare in the '90s that “that problem tackled me back.” Overall the speech was fine – hitting all the major issues with nicely packaged rhetoric that kept to the theme of a “new beginning” and “agent of change,” but it was Bill that made the event unique.

Bill has only campaigned with Hillary a handful of times and my reaction to Bill is proof of his danger. He’s intelligent, charismatic and a tough act to follow. Don’t get me wrong, I think Hillary is an impressive candidate but she is no Bill Clinton. No one is. And nostalgia, while a powerful force, isn’t a productive force.

A lot of people have been speculating as to the influence Bill would have if Hillary were to be president. Joe Biden, in an interview with CNN, said “I love Bill Clinton, but can you imagine being vice president? ... (He) is such a dominant and powerful and positive force… I’m not looking for a ceremonial post.”

He’s right. Somebody should tell Tom Vilsack that Hillary already has a running mate.