The Endorsement Game

At this point in the political season, when the campaigning and election hysteria is in high gear, it’s clear who the top tier candidates are on the democratic side and its time for the political elites to start placing their bets. 

It’s easy early on for the celebrities to endorse their candidate of choice. The celebrities and the candidates really don’t have anything to lose. For instance, Oprah endorsing Barack Obama only helped him; there were no favors to pay back or reputations to protect. When the politicians get involved, however, there are reputations to create and reputations to protect and it all comes down to who you want, who you can help and who can help you.

This last week we saw Obama pick up some significant endorsements. Of course there was the endorsement of former Democratic nominee Senator John Kerry which some say could potentially hurt Obama, as Kerry was an enigmatic candidate (Stephen Colbert had a cute piece where after showing Kerry’s endorsement had a slow motion black and white image of Barack Obama with the words “You Will Be Missed” across the frame). While the effectiveness of a Kerry endorsement might be debatable, the power of the Culinary Workers union in Nevada is undeniable. They are the union in the state, whose caucus next Saturday will potentially break the tie in carried states between Hillary and Barack. The endorsement came the morning after the Senator lost the New Hampshire primary, which is counterintuitive. Others that have jumped on the Obama bandwagon since the loss are Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano and former Senator Gary Hart.

The recent swing of major endorsements have all been toward Obama but you can’t forget that Hillary Clinton has the most powerful democratic personality already in her camp. Bill Clinton overshadows all other endorsements simply because he is the most familiar, most creditable, and most liked (well, that’s arguable) member of the democratic elite. It’s almost as though Obama has to gather all the other political forces in the party just to counteract him.

None of the Democratic candidates that have recently dropped out of the race have made endorsements. Richardson is hedging his bets, waiting to see who is closer to getting the nomination so he can put his hat in the ring as the other half of the ticket. Former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack, who was running back in January, endorsed Hillary right away but that endorsement didn’t even help her win his home state.

Meanwhile, most of the Republican political elites are waiting to see who is the candidate most likely to be the frontrunner. Right now, with a field so wide open, the only relatively recent endorsement came from independent Senator Joe Lieberman who is actively assisting his dear old friend Senator John McCain win his party’s nomination (Ned Lamont, the man who beat Joe Lieberman in the Connecticut democratic primary in 2006, recently endorsed Barack Obama).

Whether endorsements matter to voters is debatable – it depends on who and it depends on why. If it’s calling in a favor, I believe voters can recognize that. If it’s a genuine like of the candidate, I believe a voter can recognize that as well.  With Bill Clinton’s hand already tied to a candidate, the number one sought after endorsement this season for a Democrat would be that of Noble Prize Winner, former Democratic candidate, and former Vice President Al Gore. However, the likelihood of him endorsing a candidate is slim… but who knows.

Back in D.C., Still Blogging

Although I'm no longer in Iowa nor New Hampshire and actually not on the campaign trail, I will continue blogging for a bit here as I work on launching www.PoliticalAdventure.blogspot.com. Thank you all for reading. Expect a new entry on Kerry's endorsement of Obama within the next few hours. 

The GOP: Anything Is Possible

Democrats seem to have a two-person race going forward with Barack Obama winning Iowa and Hillary Clinton winning New Hampshire. I know I shouldn’t write off Edwards but for right now there are two frontrunners in the party, not three. Both Clinton and Obama have a tough fight ahead of them and I look forward to them dueling it out in Nevada and South Carolina and of course all the February 5th states.

I think that it is clearly the GOP that is the party to watch in the coming weeks. Mitt Romney was the frontrunner for a while. He had the money and endorsements of many of the republican elite with the National Review calling him a “full-spectrum conservative” however he has been the runner-up in both Iowa and New Hampshire, losing to two different opponents, making it clear that there is just no one that the Republican party is rallying behind.

Two back-to-back losses have hurt Romney significantly. First, being trampled by Huckabee in Iowa where he outspent his rival 20 to 1 and then being beaten by John McCain tonight in New Hampshire where many thought he would do well considering that he was the governor of neighboring Massachusetts. Romney made a lot of mistakes in these early states. First, he spread himself too thin while his chief rivals were honing in on the prize – Huckabee in Iowa and McCain in New Hampshire. Romney was trying to be everything to everyone while running a negative campaign against his competitors that focused on their changing positions when he himself has been flip-flopping all over the place. The commercials hurt his image more than anything else. People in Iowa and New Hampshire were turned off by his attacks ads and saw them as dirty tactics rather than campaign strategy. Even though he lost Iowa and New Hampshire, Romney did manage to pull out a win in Wyoming – the state whose delegates were responsible for the nomination of John F. Kennedy at the 1960 Democratic convention. Romney still has a chance to win the nomination, particularly if he wins Michigan where his father was governor and he announced his candidacy back in February.

Iowa victor Mike Huckabee had a third place finish tonight in New Hampshire, which isn’t a surprise. He barely campaigned here, had little resources or organization and his base support, Christian conservatives, only make up 19% of the Republican voting bloc in New Hampshire while they account for 60% in Iowa. The fact that he came in the top three, above Giuliani, is proof that his win in the Hawkeye state gave him some momentum in the granite state.

Giuliani is running a very unconventional campaign, bypassing all the real early states and focusing his efforts on Florida and the big February 5^th states where he is much more likely to gain support. However a fourth place finish in New Hampshire isn’t what Giuliani wanted. The former mayor did make some strategic errors campaigning in New England. For instance, Giulaini supporters who were bused in from New York were touting Yankee paraphernalia in the heart of Red Sox country – big mistake. Also, when visiting the Segway headquarters in Bedford, NH he refused to ride one in order to avoid an embarrassing photo-op in off chance that he might fall.  Taking himself out of the spotlight right now and waiting to really “make his mark” may be a risky strategy (particularly when you consider that no republican has ever one the party’s nomination after losing both Iowa and New Hampshire, let alone not campaigning in either).

Last but not least you have John McCain, the maverick of the GOP, whose victory tonight is reminiscent of his overwhelming victory here in 2000 when he beat out George W. Bush who had won Iowa a few weeks earlier. At the beginning of 2007, McCain was the clear frontrunner, raising more money and more momentum than any of his competitors by leaps and bounds. Then things fell apart and they fell apart quickly for the Senator. McCain made the mistake of attempting to run a national campaign instead on focusing on each state individually. There was major mismanagement of money, unpopular immigration policy, and unwavering support for Iraq strategies that appeared to be failing.  Once his money and staff were gone, the Arizona Senator knew that if he had any chance of revitalizing his candidacy he had to focus on New Hampshire, the state that where he had the most success in 2000. New Hampshire likes McCain because of his straight-talk, his tendency to stand up to the rank-in-file GOP over issues such as campaign finance reform, immigration and tax-cuts. There is a dignity to his lack of position pandering that people in New Hampshire respect.

All these candidates, with all their different strategies, the contest for the Republican nomination is far from over. No one is out of the race yet and no one is completely done for (well except perhaps Fred Thompson). This may be a contest that goes all the way to the convention floor, something I’m really looking forward to seeing.  

Mayor Villaraigosa Out On The Trail

Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa is in the Granite State supporting his candidate of choice, Hillary Clinton. As a native Los Angelino who still votes in sunny Southern California, I felt like I had a right to talk to my mayor. His press secretary was happy to oblige me an interview.

Villaraigosa has recently received some criticism about his time out on the campaign trail for Senator Clinton but he calls this the “most important election in my lifetime.” He says that he feels America is on the wrong track right now and that “Hillary Rodham Clinton is the best candidate able to hit the ground running on the first day,” which sounds familiar since her most common phrase in stump speeches is “ready on day one.”

Villaraigosa endorsed Senator Clinton back in May when she was “inevitable.” Since then, her star has begun to fade but he remains a supporter. That being said, Villaraigosa made a point of saying “my support for Hillary Clinton’s candidacy has nothing to do with opposition for any of the other candidates, it has everything to do with the fact that I’ve known her.” That way he covers his bases so that whomever ends up with the nomination knows Villaraigosa is on their side (and would be happy to report for duty).

Villaraigosa said that “the rest of the nation had an opportunity to see the Hillary Clinton I know yesterday,” referring to Hillary’s emotional moment on the campaign trail, sayng that she is “a woman of passion, a woman of deep emotion, a woman who cares about America and the direction we’re in and wants to chart a new course for America.” He isn't giving up yet on Hillary, saying that her campaign will make adjustments, keep up the energy, and forge ahead. 

I have heard time and time again, including from the mayor, that this race reminds people of the Democratic competition in 1968 where Bobby Kennedy, Hubert Humphrey, and Eugene McCarthy duked it out for the nomination. Unlike Mayor Villaraigosa, the majority of people I talk to compare it when discussing how Barack Obama reminds them of the hope and movement that Bobby Kennedy inspired. Last night a friend of mine said with a look of panic that Obama is going to get assassinated because that’s how America responds to inspiring leaders. I doubt that was the feeling that Villaraigosa was trying to express to me when reporting his feeling of nostalgia but hearing 1968 made my heart skip a beat. I understand the comparison but God I hope its a different reality. 

John Edwards in New Hampshire?

Stalking the halls of the Radisson Hotel in downtown Manchester this afternoon I came across John Edwards’s campaign manager and former House Minority Whip David Bonior.  I stopped him on his way to do a “real” interview with MSNBC where I got to pick his brain about how he feels his candidate is doing here in the Granite State.

Edwards was never considered a serious contender in New Hampshire. His populist message doesn’t really bode well in the Live Free or Die State. Of course he’ll place third tonight, coming out ahead of Bill Richardson, but Edwards’ real chance to prove himself was Iowa. While he didn’t win the hawkeye state, he did beat out Hillary Clinton making it clear that he is a force to be reckoned with… just perhaps not right away.

David Bonior didn’t really talk specifically about the outcome tonight but he made it clear that the Edwards campaign is switching gears and that Obama is now the candidate they know they have to beat. “Our campaign’s message of change is working. So is Obama’s,” Bonior said, “So at some point we’ll have a debate, sooner than later, about the kind of change.”

When asked if he thinks that winning New Hampshire makes Obama the inevitable Democratic nominee, Bonior said “No, no. Obama has a long way to go. He knows that, we know that.” Bonior then went into a history lesson on Obama’s attempt at passing universal healthcare access in the Illinois state legislature where, according to Bonior, Obama brought in lobbyists from the healthcare industry who “were successful in watering the bill down so it just became a goal rather a reality to try to get universal healthcare.” He went on from there eventually saying that “(Obama’s) been very much involved with the status quo and not really moving the ball forward in Illinois… We don’t need that kind of change, leadership. We need someone who is actually going to stand up to these folks and rally the American people around real change and get this done.” Edwards, he argues, is the guy for the job. “He’s a fighter… You need someone like Teddy Roosevelt and FDR.” Lets not forget the Roosevelt’s came from wealth and rumor has it, John Edwards was the son of a mill worker.

In regards to Hillary, Bonior said that “this was supposed to be her firewall and her firewall is burning down.” Sure she is vulnerable, but I wouldn’t count her out yet.  I believe anything is possible and I agree with Bonior when he said, “it will be a fascinating race between now and the convention” and with February 5^th only a four weeks away, we still have a heck of race in front of us. CHANGE is possible. 

Human Hillary

Since the Iowa caucus Hillary Clinton has maybe had twelve hours of sleep, a few moments of privacy and I doubt anytime to just vent. I’m a born venter. It’s what I do best and I have very little to vent about. Hillary Clinton meanwhile finished third in the Iowa caucus (forever losing her air of inevitability) and according to some polls has fallen ten points behind Barack Obama in New Hampshire. No wonder she almost lost it today.

Pundits have been writing the Senator’s political obituary ever since her third place finish last Thursday night, which came as a shock to both the media and her campaign. So today when Hillary Clinton held back tears and her voice broke during a question and answer session in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, I couldn’t help feeling sorry for her.

Yesterday evening I arrived at Winnacunnet High School in Hampton, New Hampshire at 4:30 for a Hillary Clinton event that was scheduled to start at 5:00. There were people lined up around the building waiting in the cold while the secret service and their dogs sniffed the gymnasium for bombs and anti-abortion activists. Of course the press was allowed in because if they were blown up the Hillary camp would probably be relieved.

The crowd piled in at 5:00 with no sign of the Senator. An entertaining campaign staffer came on the stage to keep the up the energy of the crowd. He played a Hillary trivia game asking questions like “what state was Senator Clinton first lady of?” If my memory serves me right, I think the first person that was called on said New York; they still got a t-shirt.

By the time Hillary arrived at 6:30, the crowd was still excited to see her; just not anxious to hear everything she had to say.  After about 45 minutes, people were filing out of the room even though she was in the middle of her question and answer however everyone I spoke to said they were still voting for the Senator, they were just tired of standing.

There are ardent Hillary supporters in New Hampshire, people who are completely unaffected by her loss in Iowa and would stand outside an Obama event in the freezing cold with buttons and signs screaming at the top of their lungs in support of HRC (as they refer to Hillary Rodham Clinton). At the rally yesterday, there were tons of parents who brought their young daughters to see the “first woman president.” One mother I spoke to said “I support Hillary because of my daughter,” another said, “it’s time we have a woman. We need a woman so that my daughter can follow in her footsteps.” These are the heart of Hillary’s support in the Granite State but more and more are becoming susceptible to the hope cult that Obama professes.

On Fox News tonight they questioned if her emotional moment was a ploy to make her seem more human. While I don’t agree with the criticism, I understand it. I think a lot of people will be questioning how presidential emotion is in the next few hours as people head to the polls here in this “Live Free or Die” state. I think that when you’re dying it’s only human to get a little ferklempt. 

Hartsfield Landing... I mean Dixville Notch

“The West Wing” wasn’t just a show to me, it was a doctrine. It transformed my life like Scientology transformed Tom Cruise. It’s embarrassing to admit, but Aaron Sorkin – the shows creator – is the one who first stimulated my interest in politics. I was in middle school when “The West Wing” first aired and I never missed an episode.

So when I came to New Hampshire for the primary all I wanted to do was go to Hartsfield Landing for the midnight voting. In the 2002 episode, President Bartlett (Martin Sheen) stayed up all night playing two simultaneous games of chess with Toby (Richard Schiff) and Sam (Rob Lowe) while Josh (the dreamy Bradley Whitford) anxiously awaited the results of the remote New Hampshire town that had a spotless record of predicting the results of party candidates and the outcome of the presidential election.

When I got here, I was very upset to find out that Hartsfield Landing doesn’t exist. However, Dixville Notch does. This quaint northern New Hampshire town that Hartsfield Landing is based on is known for their midnight primary that gets immediately reporter. While they haven’t always correctly predicted the presidential nominees (particularly in the last few democratic contests), they’ve had notable psychic power in the past. 

So the results are in. Out of the eight people who voted for Republicans in Dixville Notch two supported Rudy Giuliani, two Mitt Romney and four John McCain making the Arizona Senator the winner (and perhaps the Republican nominee). Out of the ten people who voted for Democrats one voted for Bill Richardson, two for John Edwards, and seven for Barack Obama. No one came out to vote for Hillary Clinton. Tough day for the Senator. 

Reagan Reagan Reagan

When I joined Facebook in 2004 it was social networking site limited to college students.  Now they are co-hosting presidential debates. Saturday at St. Anselm College in Manchester New Hampshire ABC joined with the online phenomenon for two back-to-back debates with all the Republican candidates in attack mode first, followed by the top four remaining Democrats.

The Republican debate was a bit crowded. There were a total of six candidates on the stage. The criteria to participate was either being in the top four out of Iowa or polling nationally at 5% or above (which qualified Ron Paul). Even though it was crowded everyone managed to take jabs at former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, the ostensible frontrunner in New Hampshire even though he lost the Iowa caucus and polls show John McCain pulling ahead.

Like every Republican debate there were numerous mentions of Ronald Reagan. In a heated exchange about amnesty for illegal immigrants Giuliani had a great line in which he made the point that Reagan was a proponent of amnesty saying, “I think he would be in one of Mitt’s negative commercials.” This was a low blow. To suggest that Mitt Romney would ever say anything negative about the hero of the GOP is heresy.

It’s been over 20 years since Reagan was last elected. There have been two republican presidents since. I have now seen every major Republican candidate besides Fred Thompson and each one of them has at one point during their stump mentioned Reagan. I have nothing against Reagan or his legacy but if the GOP wants to attract independent voters under the age of 40, perhaps it’s best if they stick to a discussion of the most recent republican president -- a legacy they are going to have to follow. Independent voters care about the now and now isn’t time to be living in the past particularly when we are in a hot war, not a cold one.  

Des Moines Precinct 69

I know. I know. I have been a little behind on the blog. I’ve been in transit (moving hotels in Iowa, then moving to New Hampshire while getting a little ill along the way).  So although this blog is three days late, better late than never.

In 2004, 212 people came to the democratic caucus at Des Moines precinct 69. In 2008, that number was 480. While the caucus chair and organizers were expecting a larger turnout, they were unprepared to deal with a 225% increase.  Eventually chairs had to be stacked so more people could fit in the hall at Callanan Middle School. Only elderly people were given sitting privileges while observers, like myself, sat on railings on the side.

Before the actual caucus started, the caucus chair asked for a show of hands of the amount of people who were first time caucus goers. About 45% of the room raised their hands. 15% were new voters. 20% registered to caucus when they arrived. 15% were independents or republicans who switched sides. There was such enthusiasm and excitement throughout the room, but it wasn’t really about any candidate in particular. It was enthusiasm about the democratic process, about Iowa as the first in the nation contest.

With 480 attendees, the magical viability number was 72 – meaning that a candidate had to have the support of 72 people to receive a delegate. Before realignment it was clear who the viable candidates were and who was going to have a difficult time staying alive in Iowa.  There were 11 Kucinich supporters, only 9 for Dodd and even one guy stood in a corner for Gravel.  Biden had 31 people while Richardson had 60. Hillary Clinton had 87 standing in her corner; John Edwards had 82 in his. The real shock was the 193 people on Barack Obama’s side of the room, over twice the number of any other candidate. They weren’t all young college students either. Obama had the largest number of older men and women and a huge majority of the under 40 vote.  The middle age crowd was nicely split between John Edwards and Hillary Clinton.

During realignment, when the non-viable and uncommitted voters are courted by the other campaigns, the majority of Kucinich people as well as the one Gravel guy joined the Obama battalion. According to Obama precinct captain Graham Gillette, the Richardson precinct captain tried to strong-arm him by saying “either you make us viable or we go to Hillary.” Gillette didn’t bite and luckily Richardson was able to court enough Biden, Dodd, and uncommitted people to make viability.

The biggest surprise of the night was that Hillary’s numbers didn’t change after realignment. She had 87 people at the beginning of the night and at the end.  Precinct 70 was meeting down the hall in the school auditorium and there were rumors that she almost didn’t make viability in the first place.

No one had to tell me the results. What was happening at precinct 69 was happening throughout Iowa – Hillary was getting whooped. Perhaps its time she started believing in the audacity of hope.

New Hampshire Adventure

Note to readers: Tomorrow was supposed to be the last day of the blog but I recently found out I'll be going to New Hampshire. Keep reading! 

If I Had To Put Money On It

No one really knows what is going to happen tonight. Campaigns are telling reporters off the record that they have no clue what is going to happen. With the amount of undecided voters that are coming out to caucus, there is no way of knowing what is going to happen. Anything is possible.

That being said, here are my predictions based on nothing but observations and gut feelings (I may regret this in the morning):

Democrats: Barack Obama will get significantly more votes (3% or more) than his two leading rivals and the close race will be between Hillary Clinton and John Edwards for the second and third slot. Joe Biden will surpass Bill Richardson for fourth as Chris Dodd supporters move to the Biden camp.

Republicans: Contrary to the polls, I think more Mitt Romney supporters are going to come out and caucus than those who support Mike Huckabee. Romney has a much stronger organization than Huckabee made up of longtime caucus goers that are actively mobilizing people throughout the state. John McCain will come in third and Fred Thompson will be the disappointing upset of the night. 

Fourth Ticket Out Of Iowa

It is said that there are three tickets out of Iowa. On the Democratic side, the three tickets seem to be settled on Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and John Edwards and now it is a contest to see how those tickets breakdown among them. There are two Democratic candidates, however, that seem to vying for a fourth ticket out of the hawkeye state.

Delaware Senator Joe Biden and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson have three times the experience of each of the leading presidential candidates and yet neither of them are polling in the double digits. Governor Richardson, who has served in Congress, as U.N. Ambassador, and Secretary of Energy, has been polling fourth in Iowa however Senator Biden, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, is looking to unseat him.

Governor Bill Richardson:

A lot of people have been saying that Bill Richardson is actually running for vice president and, while that may be the case, the candidate refuses to acknowledge it. This past weekend, at a restaurant in downtown Des Moines, over two hundred people came out to hear the Governor (or to see Martin Sheen who was supposed to be in attendance). Richardson was careful to not attack his Democratic rivals but rather focus on the common enemy, President Bush.

Elizabeth Dilly is a minister in The United Church of Christ in Red Oak, a small town in southwestern Iowa. She likes Richardson for his vast experience and thinks he has the best chance at winning a general election. “He has a broad appeal to independents and Republicans,” she said, “My dad, who is a life long Republican, said that out of all the candidates he liked Richardson the most.” Maybe he would make a good running mate.

Senator Joe Biden:

There is something strange happening among Democratic voters. I have spoken to a huge number of people that say, “I love Joe Biden but I’m supporting (insert name of top three candidate).” Biden seems to be the guy that everyone wants to vote for but that no one thinks has a chance. The dilemma is that he isn’t going to have a chance if those who like him don’t support him.

In political communication theory this is called the spiral of silence. It says that we use the media to gauge public opinion and if we believe our own opinion falls outside the norm presented in the media, we become more likely to keep our opinions to ourselves. What we have right now is a media that has focused on certain superstar candidates and a public that now believes that voting for someone outside of the top three is a waste.

On News Year’s Eve, 70 people showed up at a community center in the small town of Newton, Iowa to hear and meet Senator Joe Biden. The Senator began the event by introducing his family. One of his sons, his daughter, two daughter-in-laws, brother, mother, and three grandchildren were all in attendance – each one more attractive than the next. In total there are 20 family members and four generations of Biden’s traveling Iowa. They definitely have Kennedy potential.

As chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Joe Biden is the expert on all things international. So when the audience grilled the Senator on the crisis in Pakistan, the genocide in Darfur, and the war in Iraq, Biden gave detailed answers that impressed even the most hardened skeptics. Although not his area of expertise, the Senator continued to be impressive when talking about domestic issues related to illegal immigration, education and healthcare.

Biden's problem is that he’s the perfect candidate. He looks, sounds, and acts presidential. There is no intrigue, nothing new or exciting about his candidacy, nothing that the media can jump on. In fact, the only time Biden made news was when he said Barack Obama was “articulate,” which many saw as racially insensitive. During the debates he usually impresses pundits and viewers but he is soon forget, only his quips remembered. (In the first debate, when asked if he could be trusted to watch what he says, he simply answered “yes.” In a more recent debate, Biden said that Rudy Giuliani’s sentences consist of “a noun, a verb and 9/11.”)

The people who seem to support Biden the most are his Democratic rivals. The Biden campaign has put together a minute and a half video of all the candidates saying that they agree with the Senator while “You’ve Got A Friend in Me” plays in the background.

If Joe Biden had run in 2004 against John Kerry, Howard Dean, and John Edwards for the Democratic nomination, he would have won. But in this campaign of superstars, fourth place is the best he can hope for in Iowa.

My Feeble Attempt At Explaining The Caucuses

Tonight at 6:30 p.m. about 200,000 or so Iowans are going to brave the cold climate and head out to either a local school, neighbor’s home, or church in one of Iowa’s 1,784 precincts and support their candidate of choice for all your family and friends to see. There is nothing anonymous about a caucus. There is no pre-registration required and so long as you are 18 by Election Day you can participate. Each precinct is awarded a certain amount of delegates determined by turn out in the last general election.

How A Republican Caucus Works: You show up at the precinct location in support of a candidate, vote and then the delegates get divided accordingly.

How A Democratic Caucus Works: A Democratic caucus is far more confusing/interesting than a Republican one.

First of all, if you are not at the caucus location at 7:00 when the doors close, you cannot participate. At the start of the caucus, one person will speak on behalf of each candidate. The voters will then go to the area of the room designated for the candidate they would like to support. To be viable, a candidate must have about15% of the total number of people in the room. If a candidate has less than 15%, representatives from the other campaigns are allowed to make pitches to those supporters in order to have them join their team. Once this realignment has occurred the delegates are divided up amongst the candidates (the math is very confusing however the Obama site has a very cool tool to help explain).

It won’t be the number of delegates a candidate wins that gets reported in the media; its how many voters each candidate ends up with at the end of the night. Really, no one wins the Iowa caucus. In fact the delegates still have to go to county conventions, followed by state conventions at which the delegates for the national convention gets decided. This caucus, that jumpstarts that process, is what it means to be first in the nation.

I apologize for this confusing explanation. I have tried very hard to keep this as simple as possible but, as you can see, that is nearly impossible. For a more clear explanation of the caucus process please visit the sites listed below:

Des Moines Register's How To Caucus

How to Caucus in Iowa by Mara Liasson

Iowa Democratic Caucus FAQ

Chris Dodd, Bless His Heart

At 1:30 today, at a restaurant in Indianola, about 40 people came to see Senator Chris Dodd of Connecticut. At 9:15 today, at a church in Indianola, about 400 people came to see Senator Hillary Clinton of New York. Each are vying for the Democratic nomination but only one, it seems, is going to make it out of Iowa.

Senator Chris Dodd is a genuinely nice guy. He has a good heart, a kind smile and a friendly disposition and there was a time when that plus thirty years of experience was enough to get a guy elected president. This just isn’t that time.

A few months ago, Dodd and his wife made the decision to move to Iowa with their two young daughters. They thought that such dedication to the state would lead to more support. It hasn’t. The latest Des Moines Register poll has Dodd at 2% and while he has the support of the state firefighters, there are few other Iowans that seem to be caucusing for him.

The Senator has one commercial that has been running for days. There are no fancy graphics or pictures of him with supporters. Slow, almost sad music plays as Dodd talks in a black room about how he’s more experienced than his opponents and how he’d “appreciate your support on caucus night.” Every time the ad airs, I feel sorry for him.  He’s worked so hard. He’s such a good guy.

It's sad that instead of evoking my support, he evokes my pity.

White Male Democrat In Iowa

Former North Carolina Senator John Edwards has been running for President since the Kerry-Edwards tick was defeated in the 2004 Presidential contest. His campaign has been overshadowed in the national media by the candidacies of his big name Democratic rivals Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. While he has been trailing his two rivals in most polls, I wouldn’t surprised if he finishes in the top two tomorrow since he is the second choice of many voters who will be caucusing for candidates that will not meet the 15% threshold (this will be explained in my caucus post later today). 

John Edwards and his wife Elizabeth have been hitting nearly every county and small town to make sure that he stays in the forefront of people’s minds.  What makes his candidacy so solid is the kind of voters he is attracting. Obama and Clinton are both depending heavily on first-time caucus goers that are feeling inspired by their candidacies. Edwards, on the other hand, is attracting old school Democrats, people who have caucused before and are traditionally blue-collar workers and union members.

Margaret Jensen, a long-time caucus-goer in her late sixties, said that last time she came out for John Kerry and she’s regretted it ever since. “I swore if Edwards ran again I would caucus for him, vote for him, get everyone I could to support him,” she said.

At his event last Saturday night in a school gymnasium in Des Moines, about 600 people crowded on bleachers and stood in every available crevice to see John and Elizabeth. People held homemade signs (maybe created from supporters or perhaps campaign staffers) that gave the feeling that this is a grassroots, for-the-people-campaign. Some of these signs talked about rural Iowan support, smart trade not free trade, how Edwards is the guy for the common worker, and of course the famous “two Americas” concept that has been the cornerstone of the campaign rhetoric.

There was one sign that really grabbed my attention, “Edwards is Electable.” In his speech he talked about his qualifications, how he would fight for the common man against corporate giants and special interest, blah blah blah.  John Edwards did not say this, and I don’t mean to imply for a second that he did. But I wonder, even in an enlightened Democratic Party, how many people might choose Edwards because they feel the nation will not elect a woman or an African-American. I’m just throwing it out there. Making history is an exciting thing, and the nomination/election of with Clinton or Obama would certainly be historic. I just wonder how important that is to those still deciding how to vote. 

What is HE Doing Here?

Iowa is a quaint place. People are friendly and polite; everyone greets you with a smile and a kind word. Life moves at a leisurely pace. Fashion is more about staying warm than staying up with the latest trends. 

So, when a group of young professionals – men wearing pinstripe blazers and designer jeans and women in camelhair coats, high heels and diamond earrings – enter a bakery in Indianola, a small town 40 minutes south of Des Moines, heads definitely turn. These Giuliani volunteers with their blackberrys and Burberry are out of place and out of their element. They belong in Manhattan, not the Midwest, as does the former New York City mayor.

Rudy Giuliani is staying out of Iowa for the most part. He made a few appearances this past weekend but he’s been focusing his campaign on Florida and some of the bigger February 5^th states like California. He spoke for a grand total of 16 minutes at Furano’s Bakery, which was packed with reporters and Iowans who realized that this may be the only time they’ll get to see the mayor in a state without a coastline. 

Knowing that Iowa isn’t much for foreign policy (terror included) Giuliani stuck to domestic issues like lowering taxes, education, healthcare. He mentioned these concepts briefly but moved on quickly to questions, shaking of hands, and signing books.

Iowa isn’t a state that would elect a pro-choice thrice-married New York City mayor so staying out was a wise campaign decision. Staying out of New Hampshire, however, may end up costing Giuliani. Without the momentum of the early states, the mayor is taking a major risk. While he is still leading in most national polls, a record of electoral success in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina can greatly help his opponents close the narrowing gap.

In the meantime, it’s best if Rudy and his fashionable posse stay in the Hamptons rather than the heartland. 

Huckabee's Confusing Christian Campaign

In the Des Moines Register’s final poll before Thursday’s caucus, Mike Huckabee is pulling ahead on the Republican side with 32% to 26% for Mitt Romney. I have no doubt that the former Arkansas governor will give the former Massachusetts governor a run for his money/millions come caucus night, but for all his success, there is something odd about Huckabee’s campaign strategy.

For one thing, unlike other candidates (both Democrat and Republican) Huckabee has the lightest schedule in these crucial last days. He’s been favoring photo-ops with press to meet-and-greets with voters. For instance, the day after Christmas instead of hunting for Iowa voters, Huckabee went hunting for pheasants.

New Year’s Eve – three days before the big event – Huckabee invited the press for an early morning run and a haircut and held a press conference in between (see below). Last night he did do some politicking when he gave a speech and played bass with the band at a New Year’s Eve bash for supporters at a Des Moines country club (his first big event in days). On average, Huckabee has been holding two or three events a day while mostly everyone else is averaging five or six.

Last Saturday, Huckabee was supposed to be holding an event at Signature Grill in Indianola at 1:00. When he changed the time to noon to better suit C-SPAN, many would-be attendees didn’t get the update (including myself) and were frustrated when they arrived to find that they couldn’t even step into the over-packed one room restaurant. One woman said that she had been undecided but her frustration with the event made Huckabee her last choice.

Another aspect of his strategy that appears a

little peculiar is his “good-guy” approach to attacking his closest opponent. Yesterday, 70 reporters crammed into a small banquet room at the Marriott in downtown Des Moines for a noon press conference. Around the room were placards that assailed Romney’s record and a banner behind the podium that read “Enough is enough!”

Huckabee started by saying that he doesn’t agree with the negative tone the Romney campaign has taken, particularly with a recent barrage of attack ads against himself in Iowa and John McCain in New Hampshire. He said that he had produced an attack ad against the former Massachusetts governor but had a change of heart and was pulling the ad before it ever aired. Huckabee said that while “conventional political wisdom” says that you should “hit back” he is going to keep his campaign positive.

After going through his whole shpiel about keeping his campaign focused on why he should be president rather than why Mitt Romney should not be, Huckabee said, “I know some of you are saying ‘well did you really have an ad?’ I want to show you the ad so you get a chance to find out” at which point the room exploded in laughter. How bizarre! Essentially Huckabee was saying, “I’m not going to air the ad, I’m a good guy. However if I was going to air an attack ad, this is what I’d say.” Every journalist (and blogger like myself) could not believe this strange tactic. Either be the nice guy or be the mean guy. Either air the ad or kill the ad.

That evening at his New Year’s Eve bash Huckabee, a former Baptist minister, said that he could “sleep with peace in my heart that I know I’ve done the right thing even if it’s not the most politically conventional thing.” After hearing this, I couldn’t help but think of the sign on the side of Huckabee’s bus that says “Faith. Family. Freedom.” Is staying positive the right thing to do or the Christian thing to do? I’m not suggesting that they are mutually exclusive but I think this tactic of being the nice guy and taking the high road will mobilize Huckabee’s base of evangelical voters who dislike Romney and his Mormonism.

When I asked “Why Huckabee?” to Wanda Cowan, a middle aged woman from Indianola, she said “I like what he stands for, he’s not running a dirty campaign and he’s a Christian, that’s extremely important to us.” She said that she and her husband have only caucused once before but they can’t remember whom for but that this year they are motivated because they “want Christian people appointed in politics.”

Turning the other cheek is the Christian thing to do. Advertising to the world that you're turning the other cheek is the political thing to do. It's simply Huckabee’s way of mudslinging without getting his hands dirty.