Fourth Ticket Out Of Iowa

It is said that there are three tickets out of Iowa. On the Democratic side, the three tickets seem to be settled on Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and John Edwards and now it is a contest to see how those tickets breakdown among them. There are two Democratic candidates, however, that seem to vying for a fourth ticket out of the hawkeye state.

Delaware Senator Joe Biden and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson have three times the experience of each of the leading presidential candidates and yet neither of them are polling in the double digits. Governor Richardson, who has served in Congress, as U.N. Ambassador, and Secretary of Energy, has been polling fourth in Iowa however Senator Biden, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, is looking to unseat him.

Governor Bill Richardson:

A lot of people have been saying that Bill Richardson is actually running for vice president and, while that may be the case, the candidate refuses to acknowledge it. This past weekend, at a restaurant in downtown Des Moines, over two hundred people came out to hear the Governor (or to see Martin Sheen who was supposed to be in attendance). Richardson was careful to not attack his Democratic rivals but rather focus on the common enemy, President Bush.

Elizabeth Dilly is a minister in The United Church of Christ in Red Oak, a small town in southwestern Iowa. She likes Richardson for his vast experience and thinks he has the best chance at winning a general election. “He has a broad appeal to independents and Republicans,” she said, “My dad, who is a life long Republican, said that out of all the candidates he liked Richardson the most.” Maybe he would make a good running mate.

Senator Joe Biden:

There is something strange happening among Democratic voters. I have spoken to a huge number of people that say, “I love Joe Biden but I’m supporting (insert name of top three candidate).” Biden seems to be the guy that everyone wants to vote for but that no one thinks has a chance. The dilemma is that he isn’t going to have a chance if those who like him don’t support him.

In political communication theory this is called the spiral of silence. It says that we use the media to gauge public opinion and if we believe our own opinion falls outside the norm presented in the media, we become more likely to keep our opinions to ourselves. What we have right now is a media that has focused on certain superstar candidates and a public that now believes that voting for someone outside of the top three is a waste.

On News Year’s Eve, 70 people showed up at a community center in the small town of Newton, Iowa to hear and meet Senator Joe Biden. The Senator began the event by introducing his family. One of his sons, his daughter, two daughter-in-laws, brother, mother, and three grandchildren were all in attendance – each one more attractive than the next. In total there are 20 family members and four generations of Biden’s traveling Iowa. They definitely have Kennedy potential.

As chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Joe Biden is the expert on all things international. So when the audience grilled the Senator on the crisis in Pakistan, the genocide in Darfur, and the war in Iraq, Biden gave detailed answers that impressed even the most hardened skeptics. Although not his area of expertise, the Senator continued to be impressive when talking about domestic issues related to illegal immigration, education and healthcare.

Biden's problem is that he’s the perfect candidate. He looks, sounds, and acts presidential. There is no intrigue, nothing new or exciting about his candidacy, nothing that the media can jump on. In fact, the only time Biden made news was when he said Barack Obama was “articulate,” which many saw as racially insensitive. During the debates he usually impresses pundits and viewers but he is soon forget, only his quips remembered. (In the first debate, when asked if he could be trusted to watch what he says, he simply answered “yes.” In a more recent debate, Biden said that Rudy Giuliani’s sentences consist of “a noun, a verb and 9/11.”)

The people who seem to support Biden the most are his Democratic rivals. The Biden campaign has put together a minute and a half video of all the candidates saying that they agree with the Senator while “You’ve Got A Friend in Me” plays in the background.

If Joe Biden had run in 2004 against John Kerry, Howard Dean, and John Edwards for the Democratic nomination, he would have won. But in this campaign of superstars, fourth place is the best he can hope for in Iowa.