The Endorsement Game

At this point in the political season, when the campaigning and election hysteria is in high gear, it’s clear who the top tier candidates are on the democratic side and its time for the political elites to start placing their bets. 

It’s easy early on for the celebrities to endorse their candidate of choice. The celebrities and the candidates really don’t have anything to lose. For instance, Oprah endorsing Barack Obama only helped him; there were no favors to pay back or reputations to protect. When the politicians get involved, however, there are reputations to create and reputations to protect and it all comes down to who you want, who you can help and who can help you.

This last week we saw Obama pick up some significant endorsements. Of course there was the endorsement of former Democratic nominee Senator John Kerry which some say could potentially hurt Obama, as Kerry was an enigmatic candidate (Stephen Colbert had a cute piece where after showing Kerry’s endorsement had a slow motion black and white image of Barack Obama with the words “You Will Be Missed” across the frame). While the effectiveness of a Kerry endorsement might be debatable, the power of the Culinary Workers union in Nevada is undeniable. They are the union in the state, whose caucus next Saturday will potentially break the tie in carried states between Hillary and Barack. The endorsement came the morning after the Senator lost the New Hampshire primary, which is counterintuitive. Others that have jumped on the Obama bandwagon since the loss are Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano and former Senator Gary Hart.

The recent swing of major endorsements have all been toward Obama but you can’t forget that Hillary Clinton has the most powerful democratic personality already in her camp. Bill Clinton overshadows all other endorsements simply because he is the most familiar, most creditable, and most liked (well, that’s arguable) member of the democratic elite. It’s almost as though Obama has to gather all the other political forces in the party just to counteract him.

None of the Democratic candidates that have recently dropped out of the race have made endorsements. Richardson is hedging his bets, waiting to see who is closer to getting the nomination so he can put his hat in the ring as the other half of the ticket. Former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack, who was running back in January, endorsed Hillary right away but that endorsement didn’t even help her win his home state.

Meanwhile, most of the Republican political elites are waiting to see who is the candidate most likely to be the frontrunner. Right now, with a field so wide open, the only relatively recent endorsement came from independent Senator Joe Lieberman who is actively assisting his dear old friend Senator John McCain win his party’s nomination (Ned Lamont, the man who beat Joe Lieberman in the Connecticut democratic primary in 2006, recently endorsed Barack Obama).

Whether endorsements matter to voters is debatable – it depends on who and it depends on why. If it’s calling in a favor, I believe voters can recognize that. If it’s a genuine like of the candidate, I believe a voter can recognize that as well.  With Bill Clinton’s hand already tied to a candidate, the number one sought after endorsement this season for a Democrat would be that of Noble Prize Winner, former Democratic candidate, and former Vice President Al Gore. However, the likelihood of him endorsing a candidate is slim… but who knows.