The GOP: Anything Is Possible

Democrats seem to have a two-person race going forward with Barack Obama winning Iowa and Hillary Clinton winning New Hampshire. I know I shouldn’t write off Edwards but for right now there are two frontrunners in the party, not three. Both Clinton and Obama have a tough fight ahead of them and I look forward to them dueling it out in Nevada and South Carolina and of course all the February 5th states.

I think that it is clearly the GOP that is the party to watch in the coming weeks. Mitt Romney was the frontrunner for a while. He had the money and endorsements of many of the republican elite with the National Review calling him a “full-spectrum conservative” however he has been the runner-up in both Iowa and New Hampshire, losing to two different opponents, making it clear that there is just no one that the Republican party is rallying behind.

Two back-to-back losses have hurt Romney significantly. First, being trampled by Huckabee in Iowa where he outspent his rival 20 to 1 and then being beaten by John McCain tonight in New Hampshire where many thought he would do well considering that he was the governor of neighboring Massachusetts. Romney made a lot of mistakes in these early states. First, he spread himself too thin while his chief rivals were honing in on the prize – Huckabee in Iowa and McCain in New Hampshire. Romney was trying to be everything to everyone while running a negative campaign against his competitors that focused on their changing positions when he himself has been flip-flopping all over the place. The commercials hurt his image more than anything else. People in Iowa and New Hampshire were turned off by his attacks ads and saw them as dirty tactics rather than campaign strategy. Even though he lost Iowa and New Hampshire, Romney did manage to pull out a win in Wyoming – the state whose delegates were responsible for the nomination of John F. Kennedy at the 1960 Democratic convention. Romney still has a chance to win the nomination, particularly if he wins Michigan where his father was governor and he announced his candidacy back in February.

Iowa victor Mike Huckabee had a third place finish tonight in New Hampshire, which isn’t a surprise. He barely campaigned here, had little resources or organization and his base support, Christian conservatives, only make up 19% of the Republican voting bloc in New Hampshire while they account for 60% in Iowa. The fact that he came in the top three, above Giuliani, is proof that his win in the Hawkeye state gave him some momentum in the granite state.

Giuliani is running a very unconventional campaign, bypassing all the real early states and focusing his efforts on Florida and the big February 5^th states where he is much more likely to gain support. However a fourth place finish in New Hampshire isn’t what Giuliani wanted. The former mayor did make some strategic errors campaigning in New England. For instance, Giulaini supporters who were bused in from New York were touting Yankee paraphernalia in the heart of Red Sox country – big mistake. Also, when visiting the Segway headquarters in Bedford, NH he refused to ride one in order to avoid an embarrassing photo-op in off chance that he might fall.  Taking himself out of the spotlight right now and waiting to really “make his mark” may be a risky strategy (particularly when you consider that no republican has ever one the party’s nomination after losing both Iowa and New Hampshire, let alone not campaigning in either).

Last but not least you have John McCain, the maverick of the GOP, whose victory tonight is reminiscent of his overwhelming victory here in 2000 when he beat out George W. Bush who had won Iowa a few weeks earlier. At the beginning of 2007, McCain was the clear frontrunner, raising more money and more momentum than any of his competitors by leaps and bounds. Then things fell apart and they fell apart quickly for the Senator. McCain made the mistake of attempting to run a national campaign instead on focusing on each state individually. There was major mismanagement of money, unpopular immigration policy, and unwavering support for Iraq strategies that appeared to be failing.  Once his money and staff were gone, the Arizona Senator knew that if he had any chance of revitalizing his candidacy he had to focus on New Hampshire, the state that where he had the most success in 2000. New Hampshire likes McCain because of his straight-talk, his tendency to stand up to the rank-in-file GOP over issues such as campaign finance reform, immigration and tax-cuts. There is a dignity to his lack of position pandering that people in New Hampshire respect.

All these candidates, with all their different strategies, the contest for the Republican nomination is far from over. No one is out of the race yet and no one is completely done for (well except perhaps Fred Thompson). This may be a contest that goes all the way to the convention floor, something I’m really looking forward to seeing.